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3/3: Transition outcomes and their Implications

Online lecture by Professor Roland Fletcher from University of Sydney. Lecture 3/3 in the lecture series "The Archaeological Implications of the Interaction-Communication Matrix: an appraisal of material prerequisites, settlement trajectories and transition outcomes."

Info about event

Time

Wednesday 1 December 2021,  at 12:00 - 14:00

Location

Online lecture

Organizer

Centre for Urban Network Evolutions

The three major transitions for compact settlements with which we are familiar involved periods of severe risk, violence and ill health concurrent with rapidly increasing populations. After each transition both compact settlements and vast extensive, low-density settlements expanded very rapidly. These transitions, beyond sizes of about 1 ha, 1 sq and 100 sq km, involved punctuated acceleration in the rate of growth of compact settlements from circa 0.5 ha per century to 5 sq km per century to circa 5000 sq km per century in the 19thcentury CE - while the low-density settlements expanded even more rapidly. There is, however, no connection between the successive low-density settlements across transitions. By contrast, there is enduring continuity between successively larger forms of compact settlement across transitions. 

The disjunctions between successive magnitudes of low-density settlements suggests that our current megalopoli and desakota,which cover tens of thousands of sq km, are a terminal form with no long-term continuity. Concurrently, the punctuated transition size increases specify that there is a further transition ahead of us to compact settlements larger than circa 10,000 sq km with an accelerating expansion rate of about 5 million sq km per century. Ominously, the risk situation indicates that this mayoccur during a crisis period of severe violence, chronic ill health and rapid population growth. Beyond the crisis period a variety of new communities of disparate wealth are able to develop in a diverse and novel spectrum of settlement forms.